Probability Analysis: Tools for SPY Options Trading

Hover over any point on the chart to see the probability of expiring above that strike price!

Expected Move Formula

\( EM = S \times \sigma \times std \times \sqrt{\tfrac{DTE}{365}} \)

SPY Expected Move

Expiration Oct 07 (1D) Oct 08 (2D) Oct 09 (3D) Oct 10 (4D) Oct 13 (7D) Oct 14 (8D) Oct 15 (9D) Oct 16 (10D) Oct 17 (11D) Oct 20 (14D) Oct 24 (18D) Oct 31 (25D) Nov 07 (32D) Nov 14 (39D) Nov 21 (46D) Nov 28 (53D) Dec 05 (60D) Dec 12 (67D) Dec 19 (74D) Dec 26 (81D)
lower 666.482 664.069 662.216 660.655 656.892 655.827 654.827 653.882 652.982 650.505 647.586 643.172 639.345 635.917 632.786 629.885 627.17 624.61 622.18 619.862
upper 678.138 680.551 682.404 683.965 687.728 688.793 689.793 690.738 691.638 694.115 697.034 701.448 705.275 708.703 711.834 714.735 717.45 720.01 722.44 724.758
expected move 5.828 8.241 10.094 11.655 15.418 16.483 17.483 18.428 19.328 21.805 24.724 29.138 32.965 36.393 39.524 42.425 45.14 47.70 50.13 52.448
Nianguang Zhao '25G, Master's in Financial Engineering at Lehigh University | Aspiring Quant | Cleared CFA Level 1
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